Last reviewed on October 31, 2026.
Two gas markets moved in opposite directions in October. U.S. inventories kept building and Henry Hub spot slipped to $2.52/MMBtu on October 26, while European gas stayed at several times that level because of the loss of Middle East LNG.
U.S. storage: strong injections, shrinking surplus
Four reports published in October added 309 Bcf, taking stocks from 3,415 Bcf to 3,724 Bcf. The surplus to the five-year average narrowed to 38 Bcf, or 1.0%, from 198 Bcf in early August, and stocks stayed 147 Bcf below last year.
| Week ending | Stocks (Bcf) | Net change | vs 5-yr avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2 | 3,500 | +85 | +68 |
| October 9 | 3,567 | +67 | +45 |
| October 16 | 3,644 | +77 | +35 |
| October 23 | 3,724 | +80 | +38 |
South Central remains the soft spot: it holds 2.3% less than the five-year average, and salt-cavern stocks are 11.6% below it. Every other region is above average. See the storage hub for the chart and weekly reports.
Henry Hub: range-bound near $3
EIA daily spot prices peaked at $3.30 on October 15, then fell through the following week to $2.78 on October 23 and $2.52 on October 26. That is a low level for the start of the heating season, given how high international prices are. September averaged $2.95.
In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast end-October inventories of about 3,850 Bcf, 2% above the five-year average. It expects Henry Hub to average $3.48 in 2026 and $3.16 in 2027, with dry production of 112.2 Bcf/d in 2026 and 116.1 Bcf/d in 2027. EIA also reports U.S. output hit a record in July 2026.
Europe: a supply shock with low storage
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global LNG normally passes, and the outage at Qatar's Ras Laffan plant are the main causes. The IEA estimated the damage could delay new LNG supply by at least two years.
The timing was poor for Europe, whose storage ended last winter at about 28% full against a five-year average of 41%. World Bank data show the monthly European price rising from $15.41 in April to $25.42 in September. Market reports for October are higher still: Kpler pointed to about $29/MMBtu in mid-month, and trade press put the front month near €90–100/MWh late in the month with EU storage around 74–75% full. We have not verified those late-October figures against exchange data, so check AGSI+ and ICE Endex for exact numbers.
Why U.S. prices have not followed
A gap of more than $20/MMBtu would normally pull more U.S. gas overseas, but LNG terminals are close to capacity. The EIA says exports averaged 17.4 Bcf/d in the first half of 2026, up 23%, and links that growth to new capacity. Any extra demand is limited by how fast new trains start, including at Golden Pass and Corpus Christi. Meanwhile record production and storage near normal keep the domestic market supplied.
What to watch this winter
- U.S. end-of-season storage: the next report is due November 5; see the schedule.
- Winter weather: a cold snap matters more now that LNG demand is higher, as January 2026 showed.
- Strait of Hormuz and Qatari output: any change would move TTF and JKM first.
- EU storage trajectory: how far stocks fall by spring will shape 2027 refill demand.
Sources: EIA weekly storage, Henry Hub daily spot, monthly LNG and production data, Short-Term Energy Outlook and Today in Energy (October 2026 and earlier); World Bank Commodity Price Data; IEA Gas Market Report Q2-2026; Kpler. Not investment advice.